BREAKING DOWN THE CONFERENCE FINALS

    So far, the conference finals have been incredibly entertaining and remarkably similar.  In both series, one team jumped out to a 2-0 series lead, only to see the other team come back and tie up the series.  Not surprisingly, home-court has played a big role in the series, with the home team winning all of the games.  Now, it comes down to a best-of-3 series with each team having an equal opportunity to win.  With an important week of basketball coming up, I will take a look at each teams' strengths and weaknesses and what the keys to victory are.
                                                                                                                                                                           
                                              WCF: Spurs vs. Thunder
                           
     Analysis:  This series is tough to make out.  The Thunder outplayed the Spurs for most of Game 1 only to fall apart in the 4th quarter and lose.  In Game 2, the Spurs controlled it from the start in a game that was not as close as the final score indicated.  With their backs against the wall, the Thunder played fantastic basketball and handed the Spurs their first loss since April 11 and changed the dynamic of the series.  It's a must-see Game 5 tonight in San Antonio.
       
      Spurs will win the series if:  They rely on their experience.  They have been here before.  They have one of the best coaches in the NBA and the veteran leadership to win it all.  In the postseason, things like that are invaluable.  You can't teach championship pedigree; you just have to go out and do it.  And the Spurs have.
        
     Spurs won't win the series if:  They play run-and-gun.  As great as the Spurs offense has been this season, the Thunder are the more athletic team.  You don't want to get the Thunder, the more inexperienced team, in a running game.  That's where the Thunder are most comfortable, and a young team with confidence is bad news.
    
     Thunder will win the series if:  They move the ball around.  The recipe for success in Games 3 and 4 for the Thunder has been ball movement.  In their two wins, the Thunder have totaled 50 assists.  In their two losses, that number drops to 37.
    
     Thunder won't win the series if:  They don't stop the Spurs pick-and-roll.  They found a way in Games 3 and 4 by putting Thabo Sefolosha on Tony Parker.  It will be interesting to see what the Spurs' counter-adjustment is.
    
                                               ECF:  Heat vs. Celtics
    
     Analysis:  This series has been incredibly interesting from the start.  With the exception of
Game 1, you could argue that the Celtics have outplayed the Heat thus far.  After the Celtics lost Game 2, there was doubt whether they could even make it a series.  Now, all the pressure is on the Heat.  LeBron James has been an absolute monster in this series, but he needs help.  Also, do the Heat have an answer for Rajon Rondo?  Game 5 should be fantastic.
    
     Heat will win the series if:  They shoot the 3-pointer well.  This is absolutely critical for the Heat to do.  If guys like Mike Miller, James Jones, and Mario Chalmers are knocking down shots from the outside, it will open up driving lanes for Wade and James.  If they aren't, it allows the defense to sag in the middle and make life difficult for the Heat.
    
     Heat won't win the series if:  They don't find that killer instinct.  Almost two years into the Big 3 in Miami, and we're still waiting for the Heat to find it.  So many times in so many big games we've seen the Heat struggle and not be able to put away an inferior team, most notably in Game 2 of last year's NBA finals against the Mavericks, when they squandered a huge lead at home with a chance to take control of the series.  But, the Heat do play their best with their backs against the wall.
    
     Celtics will win the series if:  They continue to get excellent bench play.  In Game 3, it was Marquis Daniels with 9 points and 5 rebounds.  In Game 4, it was Keyon Dooling with 10 points, including three 3-pointers.  This series may come down to whose bench is better.
    
     Celtics won't win the series if:  The Heat show up for a full 48 minutes.  The Heat is the better team, and they showed how good they can be in the second half of Game 4, limiting the Celtics to just 28 second-half points (excluding overtime).  But the question is whether or not the Heat can show up and play for an entire game.