Now that the Heat and LeBron finally won the title, it begs the question: Will the Heat repeat? They will most likely go into next season as the favorite to do so, but here are 6 teams (in order, with #1 being the toughest) that could challenge them in their quest.
6. Philadelphia 76ers - They've been in the playoffs the last 2 years. They are a young, crazy athletic team with a lot of upside. Of course, it will be interesting to see what happens in the offseason with Elton Brand and Andre Iguodala.
5. Los Angeles Clippers - If the Clips weren't already considered the best team in L.A., after next year, they will be. In my opinion, the Clippers are just a 3-point shooter away from being the favorites to come out of the West. Options include Oklahoma City's Daequan Cook and Miami's James Jones.
4. Indiana Pacers - They have a budding superstar in Roy Hibbert. They have all the pieces around him to complement him, plus a fantastic coach in Frank Vogel. To top it off, they learned a lot from their playoff run this year.
3. San Antonio Spurs - Pop rebuilt the Spurs this year and it would be foolish to think the Spurs wouldn't be towards the top in the West. The younger players are a year older and more experienced but one has to wonder how many more years Duncan has left in him.
2. Chicago Bulls - Following a season of incredible disappointment, look for the Bulls to come roaring out of the gates to begin the season. In particular, keep an eye on Derrick Rose. After winning the MVP, he followed it up with a mediocre (at best) season. He will definitely use that as motivation in the offseason.
1. Oklahoma City - Nobody can say the Thunder lack experience anymore. This team has it all and has been on the big stage. They will have learned a ton from their NBA Finals experience this year, and have the leadership and continuity to make several more deep runs.
Way too Early Prediction: Thunder over the Heat in six.
Tuesday, June 26, 2012
Monday, June 11, 2012
NBA FINALS
The always entertaining NBA Finals is upon us yet again. Game 1 is tonight in Oklahoma City. This matchup is a class of the titans, with both teams expected by many to be here. There are many intriguing storylines as we enter the Finals, but here are what I think are going to be the 5 keys to this year's Finals. These keys go a long way to in determining who wins.
Key #5 - The Turnover Battle - The Thunder led the NBA in a dubious statistic of averaging the most turnovers per game in the regular season at 16. That number has been cut drastically in the postseason. Both teams, but the Heat especially, thrive in transition and turnovers are the quickest way to get the fast break started.
Key #4 - Coming in Hot - Both teams are coming in riding an incredible amount of momentum. For the Thunder, it was cooling off the hottest team in the league by winning 4 straight against the Spurs. For the Heat, it was beating the Celtics twice with their backs against the wall and, for the time being, silencing their critics. Because of this, it will be very interesting to see how the loser of Game 1 responds.
Key #3 - Who Guards Who? - The Thunder have the obvious advantage at point guard, but it begs the question: Can Mario Chalmers guard Russell Westbrook? If he can't, it poses tremendous problems for the Heat. That would mean having to move Wade or James over to guard him, but then who will guard Durant, Harden, or Ibaka? Likewise, I'm not sure how the Thunder plan to guard Wade or James. Thabo Sefolosha and Serge Ibaka are easily their best defenders, but neither one of them is well suited to guard a wing. This would mean having to put Durant, Harden, or possibly even Westbrook on the two. Guarding a superstar with your own is never ideal, so I wonder how the Thunder plan to handle that predicament.
Key #2 - Coaching - Like it or not, Erik Spoelstra takes a lot of heat (pun intended) and will be ridiculed endlessly if the Heat fall short in this series. To win, he will have to beat a rising star in the coaching ranks, Scott Brooks.
Key #1 - LeBron James - He is the one everybody will be watching in this series. No matter how well or awfully he plays in this series, it will come down to whether he is able to lead his team to victory. If he does, he may once and for all be able to quiet the critics. But, if not, this summer will go like every other one has for him, with disappointment and constant criticism. If they don't win, this could be the end of the Big 3 in Miami.
Key #5 - The Turnover Battle - The Thunder led the NBA in a dubious statistic of averaging the most turnovers per game in the regular season at 16. That number has been cut drastically in the postseason. Both teams, but the Heat especially, thrive in transition and turnovers are the quickest way to get the fast break started.
Key #4 - Coming in Hot - Both teams are coming in riding an incredible amount of momentum. For the Thunder, it was cooling off the hottest team in the league by winning 4 straight against the Spurs. For the Heat, it was beating the Celtics twice with their backs against the wall and, for the time being, silencing their critics. Because of this, it will be very interesting to see how the loser of Game 1 responds.
Key #3 - Who Guards Who? - The Thunder have the obvious advantage at point guard, but it begs the question: Can Mario Chalmers guard Russell Westbrook? If he can't, it poses tremendous problems for the Heat. That would mean having to move Wade or James over to guard him, but then who will guard Durant, Harden, or Ibaka? Likewise, I'm not sure how the Thunder plan to guard Wade or James. Thabo Sefolosha and Serge Ibaka are easily their best defenders, but neither one of them is well suited to guard a wing. This would mean having to put Durant, Harden, or possibly even Westbrook on the two. Guarding a superstar with your own is never ideal, so I wonder how the Thunder plan to handle that predicament.
Key #2 - Coaching - Like it or not, Erik Spoelstra takes a lot of heat (pun intended) and will be ridiculed endlessly if the Heat fall short in this series. To win, he will have to beat a rising star in the coaching ranks, Scott Brooks.
Key #1 - LeBron James - He is the one everybody will be watching in this series. No matter how well or awfully he plays in this series, it will come down to whether he is able to lead his team to victory. If he does, he may once and for all be able to quiet the critics. But, if not, this summer will go like every other one has for him, with disappointment and constant criticism. If they don't win, this could be the end of the Big 3 in Miami.
Monday, June 4, 2012
BREAKING DOWN THE CONFERENCE FINALS
So far, the conference finals have been incredibly entertaining and remarkably similar. In both series, one team jumped out to a 2-0 series lead, only to see the other team come back and tie up the series. Not surprisingly, home-court has played a big role in the series, with the home team winning all of the games. Now, it comes down to a best-of-3 series with each team having an equal opportunity to win. With an important week of basketball coming up, I will take a look at each teams' strengths and weaknesses and what the keys to victory are.
WCF: Spurs vs. Thunder
Analysis: This series is tough to make out. The Thunder outplayed the Spurs for most of Game 1 only to fall apart in the 4th quarter and lose. In Game 2, the Spurs controlled it from the start in a game that was not as close as the final score indicated. With their backs against the wall, the Thunder played fantastic basketball and handed the Spurs their first loss since April 11 and changed the dynamic of the series. It's a must-see Game 5 tonight in San Antonio.
Spurs will win the series if: They rely on their experience. They have been here before. They have one of the best coaches in the NBA and the veteran leadership to win it all. In the postseason, things like that are invaluable. You can't teach championship pedigree; you just have to go out and do it. And the Spurs have.
Spurs won't win the series if: They play run-and-gun. As great as the Spurs offense has been this season, the Thunder are the more athletic team. You don't want to get the Thunder, the more inexperienced team, in a running game. That's where the Thunder are most comfortable, and a young team with confidence is bad news.
Thunder will win the series if: They move the ball around. The recipe for success in Games 3 and 4 for the Thunder has been ball movement. In their two wins, the Thunder have totaled 50 assists. In their two losses, that number drops to 37.
Thunder won't win the series if: They don't stop the Spurs pick-and-roll. They found a way in Games 3 and 4 by putting Thabo Sefolosha on Tony Parker. It will be interesting to see what the Spurs' counter-adjustment is.
ECF: Heat vs. Celtics
Analysis: This series has been incredibly interesting from the start. With the exception of
Game 1, you could argue that the Celtics have outplayed the Heat thus far. After the Celtics lost Game 2, there was doubt whether they could even make it a series. Now, all the pressure is on the Heat. LeBron James has been an absolute monster in this series, but he needs help. Also, do the Heat have an answer for Rajon Rondo? Game 5 should be fantastic.
Heat will win the series if: They shoot the 3-pointer well. This is absolutely critical for the Heat to do. If guys like Mike Miller, James Jones, and Mario Chalmers are knocking down shots from the outside, it will open up driving lanes for Wade and James. If they aren't, it allows the defense to sag in the middle and make life difficult for the Heat.
Heat won't win the series if: They don't find that killer instinct. Almost two years into the Big 3 in Miami, and we're still waiting for the Heat to find it. So many times in so many big games we've seen the Heat struggle and not be able to put away an inferior team, most notably in Game 2 of last year's NBA finals against the Mavericks, when they squandered a huge lead at home with a chance to take control of the series. But, the Heat do play their best with their backs against the wall.
Celtics will win the series if: They continue to get excellent bench play. In Game 3, it was Marquis Daniels with 9 points and 5 rebounds. In Game 4, it was Keyon Dooling with 10 points, including three 3-pointers. This series may come down to whose bench is better.
Celtics won't win the series if: The Heat show up for a full 48 minutes. The Heat is the better team, and they showed how good they can be in the second half of Game 4, limiting the Celtics to just 28 second-half points (excluding overtime). But the question is whether or not the Heat can show up and play for an entire game.
WCF: Spurs vs. Thunder
Analysis: This series is tough to make out. The Thunder outplayed the Spurs for most of Game 1 only to fall apart in the 4th quarter and lose. In Game 2, the Spurs controlled it from the start in a game that was not as close as the final score indicated. With their backs against the wall, the Thunder played fantastic basketball and handed the Spurs their first loss since April 11 and changed the dynamic of the series. It's a must-see Game 5 tonight in San Antonio.
Spurs will win the series if: They rely on their experience. They have been here before. They have one of the best coaches in the NBA and the veteran leadership to win it all. In the postseason, things like that are invaluable. You can't teach championship pedigree; you just have to go out and do it. And the Spurs have.
Spurs won't win the series if: They play run-and-gun. As great as the Spurs offense has been this season, the Thunder are the more athletic team. You don't want to get the Thunder, the more inexperienced team, in a running game. That's where the Thunder are most comfortable, and a young team with confidence is bad news.
Thunder will win the series if: They move the ball around. The recipe for success in Games 3 and 4 for the Thunder has been ball movement. In their two wins, the Thunder have totaled 50 assists. In their two losses, that number drops to 37.
Thunder won't win the series if: They don't stop the Spurs pick-and-roll. They found a way in Games 3 and 4 by putting Thabo Sefolosha on Tony Parker. It will be interesting to see what the Spurs' counter-adjustment is.
ECF: Heat vs. Celtics
Analysis: This series has been incredibly interesting from the start. With the exception of
Game 1, you could argue that the Celtics have outplayed the Heat thus far. After the Celtics lost Game 2, there was doubt whether they could even make it a series. Now, all the pressure is on the Heat. LeBron James has been an absolute monster in this series, but he needs help. Also, do the Heat have an answer for Rajon Rondo? Game 5 should be fantastic.
Heat will win the series if: They shoot the 3-pointer well. This is absolutely critical for the Heat to do. If guys like Mike Miller, James Jones, and Mario Chalmers are knocking down shots from the outside, it will open up driving lanes for Wade and James. If they aren't, it allows the defense to sag in the middle and make life difficult for the Heat.
Heat won't win the series if: They don't find that killer instinct. Almost two years into the Big 3 in Miami, and we're still waiting for the Heat to find it. So many times in so many big games we've seen the Heat struggle and not be able to put away an inferior team, most notably in Game 2 of last year's NBA finals against the Mavericks, when they squandered a huge lead at home with a chance to take control of the series. But, the Heat do play their best with their backs against the wall.
Celtics will win the series if: They continue to get excellent bench play. In Game 3, it was Marquis Daniels with 9 points and 5 rebounds. In Game 4, it was Keyon Dooling with 10 points, including three 3-pointers. This series may come down to whose bench is better.
Celtics won't win the series if: The Heat show up for a full 48 minutes. The Heat is the better team, and they showed how good they can be in the second half of Game 4, limiting the Celtics to just 28 second-half points (excluding overtime). But the question is whether or not the Heat can show up and play for an entire game.
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